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Projected service use

Adults :: Offenders :: Projected service use

The offender and ex-offender health population will change over the next 10 years. There are changes that will be brought about from tackling the wider determinants of health and aimed at reducing the number of people coming into contact with the criminal justice system. There will also be those system wide changes that are designed to reduce the number of people reoffending. Better recognition of the association between Looked After Children and the likelihood of contact with the criminal justice system may help local authorities implement preventative measures much earlier on. Disease patterns and health needs are also likely to change in the prison population, in part this will be due to the change in age profile of prisoners. Greater emphasis on mental health and improved access to services for children and young people may result in fewer people entering the criminal justice system.

  Frequency Indicative activity
for 12 months
Access clinics Daily 2,819
Chiropodist 6 Weekly 8
Chlamydia screens On demand 199
Dentist Weekly 185
GP (appointments) Daily 1,147
GUM referrals As required 19
Health promotion Twice weekly 444
Immunisation and vaccination Twice weekly 206
Optician 4-6 weekly 57
Physio On demand 9
Receptions Daily 444
Wellman Twice weekly 444
Table 1: Estimated service use over the next 12 months for HMP Rochester

The Ministry of Justice has estimated prison population projections for the period 2011–2017 which are considered alongside legislation and sentencing activity on the prison population.[1] The three projected trends reflect the cumulative impacts of the various circumstantial, sentencing, legislative and procedural assumptions and are modelled on 'lower', 'medium' and 'higher' scenarios in 2011 projections. Recent public disorder impacts on prison population trends.

Following the medium projection, the prison population rises gradually (between 0.0 and 0.7 % year on year) to 2017, which is an increase from 85,200 in 2011 to 88,900 in 2017. This gradual rise is principally due to a steady rise in the indeterminate sentence population, but is also influenced by a rise in the non-criminal population over the first year of the projection and a later rise in the determinate sentence population. The exception to this is a projected 2.0% rise from June 2011 to June 2012 which is partly a consequence of the August 2011 public disorder events. This brings the projected prison population to 86,900 by June 2012. There is 0% growth in the projected prison population in the following year as the majority of public disorder prisoners complete their sentence and the total projected prison population remains at 86,900.

  Frequency Indicative activity
for 12 months
Access clinics Daily 2,819
Chiropodist 6 Weekly 8
Chlamydia screens On demand 199
Dentist Weekly 185
GP (appointments) Daily 1,147
GUM referrals As required 19
Health promotion Twice weekly 444
Immunisation and vaccination Twice weekly 206
Optician 4-6 weekly 57
Physio On demand 9
Receptions Daily 444
Wellman Twice weekly 444
Table 2: Estimated service use over the next 12 months for HMYOI Cookham Wood

Following the lower projection, the prison population generally falls (between 0.2 and 0.6% year on year) to 2015 due to a projected decrease in the level of immediate custodial conviction. After 2015 it rises slightly as the indeterminate sentence population continues to rise against a background of levelling determinate sentence, remand and recall populations. Following the higher projection, the prison population generally rises (initially at around 2% year on year, reducing to less than 1% year on year by 2015) throughout the modelled period. At the end of June 2011 the published prison population was within 0.2% (200 in 85,400) of the medium projection, and within -0.9% of the high projection. At the end of September 2011 the published prison population was within 0.7% (600 in 87,500) of the medium projection, and within -0.9% of the high projection. Based on medium and high projections, service use within prisons is likely to increase. A low projection would indicate a possible reduction in service use.

HMP Rochester

The current total operational capacity is 664 offenders, and current population is 577 (June 2012). A refurbishment is currently taking place which will result in the capacity increasing to 724. Once the A wing opens (estimated to open in July 2013) the capacity will increase to 804. It is expected that 60% of the prisoners will be older adults and 40% will be younger males. The average length of stay is 4.5 months. The indicative service use over the next 12 months has been estimated for this prison to help plan health services (table 1)(source: HMP Rochester and NHS Medway).

HMYOI Cookham Wood

Current total operational capacity is 143 people and the current population is 110. There is a proposed new build at the prison which will increase the population capacity to 179 in the future. The average length of stay is 3–4 months (table 2).


References

[1]   Ministry of Justice. Prison population projections