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Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

Adults :: Excess winter deaths :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

In common with the rest of the UK, Medway has an ageing population. This could mean that excess winter mortality (EWM) will increase when risk factors are conducive. As few services exist which specifically tackle EWM, it is difficult to model how this demographic change will affect those services. It is likely that the demand for influenza immunisation will increase.

The importance of managing those risk factors which are within the ambit of the NHS and Local Authority will grow as morbidity associated with excess cold will place greater winter pressures on NHS acute capacity. The monthly pattern of respiratory admissions, influenza admissions, influenza and pneumonia admissions combined and influenza laboratory tests, show winter peaks similar to the all-cause mortality pattern.[1]

In addition, it can be expected that the current economic climate, combined with the rising costs of fuel will increase fuel poverty and limit the amount of home maintenance undertaken.


References

[1]   East Midlands Public Health Observatory. Excess Winter Deaths in the East Midlands 2006/07: Report Update 2009. 2009; East Midlands Public Health Observatory. http://www.empho.org.uk/viewResource.aspx?id=9663 .