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Projected service use and outcomes

Adults :: End of life :: Projected service use and outcomes

It is predicted that by 2020, the ageing population will increase globally, with more people dying from chronic rather than acute diseases[1] and health care will increasingly focus on achieving the best possible quality of life for patients and their families and providing palliative care. Part of this includes meeting their wishes with regards to place of care and of death. Population projections for Medway from 2015 suggest that by 2020, there will be an increase in the size of population aged 85 and over by 17% to 5,600, and by 2030 it will increase by 85% to 8,900.[2] Based on current trends, it is expected that the prevalence of major causes of death in Medway will continue to rise over the next 5 to 10 years. This increase in prevalence and an ageing population will have an impact on end-of-life care services within health and social care.

In a study of multimorbidity by Melzer et al. (2015), the percentage of the population in England aged over 85 years with three or more long-term conditions was estimated at 55.1% (95% CI: 52.6%-57.5%).[3] Based on the national estimate, it can be predicted that in Medway, by 2020 over 3,000 people and by 2030 nearly 4,900 people aged 85 and over will be living with three or more long-term conditions.


References

[1]   Davies E, Higginson I. Better Palliative Care for Older People 2004; WHO Europe. http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/98235/E82933.pdf .
[2]   Projecting Older People Population Information (POPPI). Population projections
[3]   Melzer.D., Tavakoly.B., Winder, R.E., Masoli, J.A., Henley, W.E., Ble, A., Richards, S.H.. Much more medicine for the oldest old: trends in UK electronic clinical records Age and Ageing 2015; 44(1): 46-53.