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Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Adults :: Diabetes :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

  2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Medway 6.8% 7.4% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0%
South East Coast 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.8% 9.4%
England 7.4% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5%
Table 1: Estimate of prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in those aged 16+ [1]

The prevalence of diabetes in Medway in 2010 was estimated to be around 6.8% of the population aged 16 years and over. These estimates are modelled to take account of age, sex, ethnic group and deprivation and are, therefore, subject to a certain amount of uncertainty. For example, the 2010 figure is thought to lie somewhere between 4.9% and 9.8%. Therefore the differences in prevalence between areas in the table above are not statistically significant. By taking into account projected changes in the age structure of the population, combined with observed trends in obesity, the prevalence in Medway is expected to increase to 9% by 2030.

In contrast, the average prevalence of diabetes recorded by general practices in Medway is 6.3% (approximately 14,000 patients) as at March 2010 according to the Quality and Outcomes Framework which is limited to patients aged 17 years and over. This suggests that approximately 0.5% of the population have undiagnosed diabetes in comparison with estimates of the underlying prevalence in the table above.


References

[1]   Association of Public Health Observatories. Diabetes Prevalence Model