Search

Table of contents

Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Adults :: Dementia :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

The most significant challenge with respect to the provision of dementia care is the increase in the ageing population over the next 20 years. The graph below illustrates the expected growth.

Figure 1: Trends in estimated number of people living in Medway with Dementia aged 65 years and over
Figure 1: Trends in estimated number of people living in Medway with Dementia aged 65 years and over [1]
  2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Females 1,629.0 1,798.0 2,056.0 2,495.0 2,904.0 3,359.0
Males 893.0 1,068.0 1,304.0 1,583.0 1,916.0 2,224.0
Persons 2,522.0 2,866.0 3,360.0 4,078.0 4,820.0 5,583.0
Table 1: Trends in estimated number of people living in Medway with Dementia aged 65 years and over [1] Please note, figures may not sum due to rounding

Notes: Age-sex prevalence estimates have been taken from Dementia UK 2007 report produced for the Alzheimer's society by King's College London and the London School of Economics. The prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65 and over population to give estimated numbers of people predicted to have dementia.

Between 2012 and 2037, the number of older people living in Medway with Dementia is expected to increase from approximately 2,500 to 5,600. This is driven by projected changes in the age structure of the population.

Using the information in previous sections the proportions of the population expected to have mild, moderate or severe dementia the following table illustrates the expected changes over the next 25 years.

  2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Mild 1,387.0 1,576.0 1,848.0 2,243.0 2,651.0 3,071.0
Moderate 807.0 917.0 1,075.0 1,305.0 1,542.0 1,787.0
Severe 328.0 373.0 437.0 530.0 627.0 726.0
Total 2,522.0 2,866.0 3,360.0 4,078.0 4,820.0 5,583.0
Table 2: Trends in estimated number of people living in Medway with Dementia aged 65 years and over by level of severity [1] [2]

Notes: These predictions are based on prevalence rates in a report by Eric Emerson and Chris Hatton of the Institute for Health Research, Lancaster University, entitled Estimating Future Need/Demand for Supports for Adults with Learning Disabilities in England, June 2004. The authors take the prevalence base rates and adjust these rates to take account of ethnicity (i.e. the increased prevalence of learning disabilities in South Asian communities) and of mortality (i.e. both increased survival rates of young people with severe and complex disabilities and reduced mortality among older adults with learning disabilities). Therefore, figures are based on an estimate of prevalence across the national population; locally this will produce an over-estimate in communities with a low South Asian community, and an under-estimate in communities with a high South Asian community.

This means there will also be an increase in the number of older people with learning disabilities which will also affect the need for services.


References

[1]   Institute of Public Care and Oxford Brookes University. Projecting Older People Population Information System 2010;
[2]   Emiliano DA, Banerjee PS, Dhanasiri S, et al. Dementia UK: The Full Report 2007; Alzheimer's Society. http://alzheimers.org.uk/site/scripts/download.php?fileID=2 .