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Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

Adults :: COPD :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

Modelled estimates and projections of COPD prevalence carried out in 2008 by the Eastern Region Public Health Observatory (ERPHO), projected an increase in the prevalence of COPD. An increase in COPD prevalence has been observed. The model provides a projection up to 2020, which predicts a continuation of this trend.

The prevalence is estimated to be 0.2% higher in males and 0.1% higher in females in 2020 compared to 2015. The projected prevalence for males in 2020 is 4.3% and 2.5% in females.

A rise in the number of people with COPD will likely lead to an increase in demand for services such as those provided by the Community Respiratory Team over the next 4 years to 2020.

There is a risk that if the need for community-based, multidisciplinary care is not met, individuals with COPD may go on to require emergency services and/or acute secondary care.

However, prevention, early diagnosis, and effective intervention and treatment by primary care and community services should in time result in a decrease in the demand on acute hospital care and social services.