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Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

Adults :: Adult mental health [Update in progress] :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3-5 years and 5-10 years

The tables below show the effect of demographic changes on the numbers of people predicted to have a mental health problem from 2012 -2021. Overall there are not expected to be significant changes except in the case of depression and dementia in older adults (as might be expected given the ageing population). However it is important to remember that there may also be changes due to the external environment, particularly economic and social factors. These have been shown to impact on common mental health problems and suicide rates but they have not been taken into account in the projections below.

Projections applying to adults

The national prevalence figures reported in the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey [1], have been applied to Medway population figures in order to estimate the number of people with common mental disorders locally. Figures may not sum as rounding has been applied and a person may have more than one condition.

MAD GAD Depression All Phobias OCD Panic Any CMD
M F P M F P M F P M F P M F P M F P M F P
2012 7,343 12,124 19,467 3,562 5,779 9,341 2,013 3,030 5,042 848 2,187 3,036 1,006 1,461 2,468 1,015 1,289 2,304 13,198 21,571 34,769
2016 7,582 12,551 20,133 3,720 5,942 9,662 2,085 3,102 5,187 887 2,231 3,118 1,034 1,481 2,515 1,042 1,339 2,381 13,661 22,256 35,916
2021 7,824 12,922 20,747 3,885 6,106 9,991 2,156 3,166 5,322 933 2,292 3,225 1,060 1,489 2,549 1,069 1,405 2,474 14,125 22,921 37,047
Table 1: Estimated number of people living in Medway with common mental disorders in past week, 2013-2021
  2012 2016 2021
Males 254 266 284
Females 545 549 563
Persons 799 816 848
Table 2: Estimated number of people living in Medway with psychotic disorder in past year by gender, 2013-2021
Suicide attempts lifetime Suicide attempts lifetime (self-completion) Self-harm (lifetime) Self-harm lifetime (self-completion)
M F P M F P M F P M F P
2012 3,938 6,383 10,322 4,586 7,519 12,105 3,633 3,944 7,577 4,685 6,111 10,796
2016 4,081 6,527 10,608 4,752 7,686 12,438 3,700 3,915 7,615 4,799 6,091 10,890
2021 4,206 6,695 10,902 4,907 7,869 12,776 3,779 3,880 7,659 4,900 6,060 10,961
Table 3: Estimated numbers of people living in Medway having attempted suicide or engaged in self-harming behaviour, 2013-2021

Projections applying to older people

Figure 1: Trend in estimated number of people living in Medway with Depression aged 65 years and over.
Figure 1: Trend in estimated number of people living in Medway with Depression aged 65 years and over
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI).
  2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Depression 3,374 3,661 4,015 4,461 5,046
Severe Depression 1,050 1,141 1,254 1,449 1,626
Dementia 2,468 2,656 3,076 3,655 4,347
Table 4: Trends in estimated number of people living in Medway with Depression and Dementia aged 65 years and over
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI)

References

[1]   McManus S, Meltzer H, Brugha T, et al. Adult psychiatric morbidity in England, 2007: Results of a household survey 2009; The NHS Information Centre for health and social care. http://bit.ly/GAxluS .