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Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Background papers: children :: Child Carers :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Table 1 shows projected carer provision required in the years 2017 to 2037. These projections assume that the proportion of the population providing care in the future, by age, remains the same as in 2011.[1]

  2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
0 to 15 701 740 759 765 770
16 to 24 1,548 1,495 1,577 1,697 1,749
Table 1: Estimated number of young carers in Medway, by age, 2017 to 2037. Projections calculated using Census 2011 carer numbers and 2012-population projections (ONS).

This assumption is unlikely to be accurate as it does not take into account changes in the prevalence of age-related conditions of those requiring care, such as dementia, which has shown a rapid increase in prevalence. In addition, the proportion recognised as providing care is likely to increase due to better identification of unpaid carers. Thus we are likely to see much higher numbers recorded in the future than those estimated in Table 1.


References

[1]   ONS. Census 2011;