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Projected service use

Background papers: children :: Looked After Children :: Projected service use

The population growth for 2013 in Medway was above that seen in Kent, the Southeast and England and Wales with continuing increases being seen in the population of children and adults of working age. Recent population growth can be attributed to births exceeding deaths and inward migration with inward migration becoming a more significant factor since 2011. Population growth is predicted to continue and as such the numbers of Looked After Children in Medway is anticipated to rise over the coming years.

  0-15 16-64 65+
Medway 20.2 64.5 15.3
Kent 19.2 61.3 19.5
South East 19.0 62.4 18.6
England 19.0 63.5 17.6
Table 8: Population of Medway and comparator areas by broad age group in 2014

Modelling taking account of housing and regeneration plans has been undertaken by the School Organisation and Capital Team. This modelling supports the assertion of continued population growth up to and including 2019 in the under-five age range as detailed in figure 7 below.

Figure 7: Number of 4 year olds potentially needing a reception place.
Figure 7: Number of 4 year olds potentially needing a reception place.[1]

If a similar increase in all child age ranges is seen the forecast for Looked After Children of 430 in 2015/16 and 388 in 2019/20 will need to be revised upwards.


References

[1]   School Organisation and Capital Team Medway Council. Forecast number of four-year olds in Medway 2015;