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Projected Service Use

Background papers: Lifestyle and wider determinants :: Air Quality [Update in progress] :: Projected Service Use

AEA have produced estimates for Defra in 2012, providing projections on air pollution for 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, based on three different scenarios.[1] The following table details the third scenario, considered to be the most realistically ambitious, factoring in economic growth, fossil fuel prices, and transport activity.

  PM10 PM2.5 NOx SO2
2005 135.0 81.0 1,580.0 706.0
2010 114.0 67.0 1,106.0 406.0
2015 111.0 59.0 910.0 371.0
2020 106.0 57.0 708.0 287.0
2025 105.0 57.0 612.0 250.0
2030 108.0 59.0 589.0 242.0
Table 1: Pollutant in kilotonnes by year

In other words, it is expected that pollutants, and those most relevant to health such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5) will fall, or plateau over the next two decades. Nonetheless, it is also worth noting that COMEAP comments that there are no 'safe' levels of PM2.5 so that even if the reduction of air pollution is encouraging, efforts still need to be redoubled to accelerate reductions. Furthermore, Medway has higher levels of PM2.5 than many other places in the UK, and given its position between London, Kent and continental Europe, this is likely to continue.


References

[1]   National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. UK Emission Projections of Air Quality Pollutants to 2030 2012; National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/reports/cat07/1211071420_UEP43_(2009)_Projections_Final.pdf .