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Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Background papers: Lifestyle and wider determinants :: Substance misuse in adults [Update in progress] :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Home Office analysis of the British Crime Survey [1] indicates that illicit drug misuse among adults (aged 16–59) in England and Wales declined in 2009–2010 with 8.6% of adults using one or more illicit drug use within the last year, compared to 10.1 in 2008–2009 and 11.1% in 1996. The decline is mainly due to a decrease in cannabis use. Class A drug trends and specifically opiate and crack use remained stable. Although these are not statistically significant trends, it appears that in the short term (3–5 years), numbers are likely to remain the same or fall slightly, subject to continued levels of investment in drug treatment services.

In the medium term (5–10 years), numbers may be seen to fall as a result of the redesign and re-tendering of drug and alcohol treatment services, in a new redesigned treatment system as part of the focus on recovery and re-integration.

There is an expectation that the number of problematic drug users (PDUs) exiting structured treatment successfully will increase with more people achieving sustained recovery and freedom from dependence on drugs. There is a national decrease in the number of heroin users and it is expected that Medway service users will reflect this changing population. There is already an increase in the non-opiate using clients who are accessing the drug service and this is expected to expand. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in the number of prescription drug misusing clients accessing services in the coming years.

Due to the introduction of the Treatment Review Panel and the restructuring of service provision in the drug service there has already been a significant increase in the number of clients who are completing treatment drug free. Medway is now above the regional and national average for clients completing treatment drug free.


[1]   Hoare J. Drug Misuse Declared: Findings from the 2008/09 British Crime Survey 2009; Home office. .