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Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

Background papers: Lifestyle and wider determinants :: Alcohol :: Projected service use and outcomes in 3--5 years and 5--10 years

  15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64 65 +
2018 36.4 40.7 55.3 53.0 45.4
2022 36.3 41.9 55.6 56.1 49.4
2026 38.2 41.0 59.0 56.1 54.5
Table 1: Medway population projections 2012 - 2026 (ONS sub-national population projections). Note: Figures are in thousands

The key indicators of hospital admissions for alcohol related and alcohol specific conditions and alcohol related mortality all show an increasing trend in Medway[1] but the contributing reasons are complex.

Factors that may contribute to a reduction in hospital admission episodes are:
• The ONS figures suggest that 15-24 year olds in Medway will actually decrease over the next ten years and then gradually increase again. Alcohol consumption trends among young people have shown they are drinking less frequently compared with a decade ago[2], and coupled with the decreasing population of this cohort, this may result in a decrease in interventions.
• Changes to treatment and recovery services, aimed at supporting substance misusers through the treatment phase and into a sustainable recovery may reduce the number of people re presenting to treatment services.
• Increase in IBA interventions within the hospital setting in response to updated CQUIN indicators[3], due to start in 2018, identifying increasing risk and higher risk drinkers, will support and encourage healthier behaviour, with the intention of reducing alcohol harms.
• Decrease of the availability of alcohol due to the adoption of a more strategic Statement of Licencing Policy, including a Cumulative Impact Policy in those geographical areas of greatest alcohol related harms.
• Factors that may contribute to an increase in attendances
• Middle aged groups (40 - 64 years), particularly males, who are showing an increasing trend in all key indicators, are projected to grow at a faster rate than younger groups[1]. This older group may experience an increasing incidence of alcohol related harms in line with this trend, with increased associated hospital admission episodes.
• Increase in IBA interventions within the hospital setting in response to updated CQUIN indicators[3], identifying dependent drinkers with subsequent referrals to treatment services, may increase the number of those seeking treatment and recovery services.


References

[1]   Public Health England. Local Alcohol Profiles for England 2017;
[2]   O'Connor R. Public health matters: Alcohol - some encouraging trends 2015;
[3]   NHS England. Technical guidance for refreshing NHS Plans 2018/19 annex A: Commissioning for Quality and Innovation (CQUIN) indicator specification 2017-2019 2017;